Magic Kingdom
- Our error
- 5.91 min
- Industry feed
- 7.76 min
- Within 10 min
- 85.6%
- Forecasts
- 11,455
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Accuracy Report
Graded against what actually happened: 23,326 forecasts over 30 days, July 28, 2026 to August 26, 2026. Recomputed nightly. Nothing here is hand-picked.
Average error
6.17 min
Lower is better
Industry feed, head to head
9.28 min
On the 13,997 forecasts we both made, we average 6.3 min to their 9.28 min — 32% less error
Forecasts graded
23,326
across 30 days
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Download WaitScout| Park | Our error | Industry feed | Within 10 min | Forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magic Kingdom | 5.91 min | 7.76 min | 85.6% | 11,455 |
| EPCOT | 5.18 min | 8.31 min | 86.2% | 4,919 |
| Hollywood Studios | 7.86 min | 11.4 min | 77.7% | 4,360 |
| Animal Kingdom | 6.34 min | 14.15 min | 82.6% | 2,592 |
Right now Hollywood Studios is our weakest park (7.86 min average error) and EPCOT our strongest (5.18 min). Both are listed above at whatever the data says today.
We do not win every forecast — we win 54.6% of them
That is measured on the 13,997 forecasts where the industry feed also published a number, which is the only set where a head-to-head question has an answer. It covers 60% of what we forecast; the feed does not cover the rest, so nobody can be compared there. We lose 45.4% of individual matchups, and our average error is lower on top of that — when we are wrong, we are wrong by less. A page that only showed the flattering number would not be worth reading, so both are here.
Every forecast is timestamped when we issue it. After the day closes, we compare the predicted wait for each ride and hour against the realized median wait we recorded for that same ride and hour. The gap between the two, in minutes, is the error. We average it. That is the whole method.
We report error in minutes, not as a percentage. A percentage makes short waits look catastrophic and long waits look excellent: being 5 minutes off a 10-minute wait scores far worse than being 20 minutes off a 90-minute wait, even though the second miss is the one that ruins an afternoon. Minutes are what you actually stand in.
The comparison column is the same forecast horizon scored against the public industry feed. It is not the same population as our own error figure, and we are not going to pretend otherwise: the feed publishes a number for about six in ten of the slots we forecast, so every head-to-head figure on this page is computed only on the slots where both of us committed to a prediction — same rides, same hours, same days, both sides present. Our own average error above covers everything we served, including the slots the feed left blank. Rides that were closed are excluded — predicting a closure is a different problem, and we do not get to count it here. Nothing is dropped for making us look bad.